Climate | ~ 4 min read
COP 29: approaching boiling point?
Extreme weather events and warnings from climate experts have come in a politically charged year of multiple elections, peaking with Donald Trump’s resounding win in the US. Coupled with an underwhelming biodiversity COP in Cali, what can we expect at COP 29?
This year’s Climate Change Conference (COP 29), starting on 11 November in Baku, is viewed as the “finance” COP. The hope is that it will finally tackle the question of a climate financing framework for transition to a 1.5°C world. Given the backdrop of dramatic global political changes across the globe, the pressure is on to deliver something tangible.
Here are the key issues we will be looking out for:
- Can we address climate finance gaps without the US? Negotiations around the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) – a key element of the 2015 Paris Agreement – were expected to be a key focus. The NCQG seeks to address climate finance gaps through a realistic and ambitious financial framework to be finalised next year. Will this survive the impact of the US election?
- Supporting countries most vulnerable to climate change will likely be in focus as discussions move from climate change to climate impact. This will include operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP 28. The presidency of COP29 has made the organisation of carbon markets (article 6 of the Paris agreement) one of the main priorities for COP29.
- We expect a spotlight on sovereigns’ climate disclosures, with the first of a five-yearly series of global stocktakes just around the corner. The outcome of these stocktakes will inform sovereigns’ 2025 updates to their climate action plans, as required by the Paris Agreement.
- The impact of climate change on health is set to remain a central issue after featuring prominently at COP 28. With increasing concerns about managing the health risks of climate change – mental and physical – we expect more time dedicated to this issue.
- Technology is a new theme on this year’s agenda. Investment in climate transition technologies has risen steadily in the last decade, accounting for a growing share of venture capital and private equity start-up investments. Digitalisation will also be addressed, indicating the role that tech solutions can play in achieving climate goals.
- The conference location of Azerbaijan is a natural talking point. Close to half of the country’s GDP derives from oil and gas and President Ilham Aliyev intends to expand the country’s gas production. Despite the headlines, it is important to note that gas could be integral to the G7 countries’ pledge to phase out unabated coal by 2035.
October’s biodiversity-focused COP has done little to encourage a focus on outcomes at COP 29. Positive progress on TNFD adopters, the recognition of those of African descent and Indigenous People as key stewards of biodiversity, and synthetic biology, were overshadowed by the failures to escalate finance or policy alignment. A similar lack of progress at COP 29 would undermine the value of the conference and cement a delayed transition scenario.
