Sustainability | ~4 min read
Follow that robotaxi!
Autonomous ride-hailing is accelerating fast, with reduced emissions and increased road safety often cited as key benefits. But what are the wider sustainability implications of adopting “robotaxis”?
Driverless taxis have already shifted from science fiction to commercial reality since the first autonomous vehicle (AV) services launched in 2020. Today, robotaxis operate in several US and Chinese cities, with plans for similar services in Europe.
Estimates for the size of the future global fleet of robotaxis vary widely, but they are expected to present a major shift in the future of mobility. In our automotive sector research, we have identified several sustainability considerations:
- Safety: A core argument for driverless cars is that most road accidents stem from human error. Advanced driver assistance systems have helped, but road safety remains paramount – and shifting accident liability from drivers to companies could pressure AV developers’ margins, through insurance and legal costs. This may create particular challenges for smaller start-ups or big tech subsidiaries.
- Emissions: Because most AVs are electric, wider adoption could support emissions reduction. That said, they typically consume more energy than standard electric vehicles due to higher energy demand from sensors, computing systems, and artificial intelligence processing. These pressures – combined with opportunities to partner with technology firms and accelerate vehicle sales – give automakers strong incentives to develop more energy‑efficient AV models.
- Data: With their dependence on high-volume data flows and constant connectivity, robotaxis need resilient and secure data and systems resilience for safe, uninterrupted services. These requirements will flow through the value chain setting the bar for manufacturers, operators and ride-hailing platforms.
- Employment: Estimates for the adoption of AV ride-hailing services vary widely, but societal impacts are expected. The displacement of driving jobs is likely to impact over seven million drivers in China and 400,000 in the US – with many self-employed. The rise of ride-hailing platforms a decade ago caused tensions with traditional taxi drivers. AVs may have a similar, or even greater societal impact.
- Congestion: Major cities are seeing rising congestion driven by population growth, urbanisation, and high car reliance. Robotaxis could add to traffic congestion if they spend significant time travelling empty between passenger pick-ups and drop-offs (so-called deadheading). More traffic means higher social and economic costs – including the potential for stricter congestion charging initiatives as cities attempt to manage increased road pressure.
By impacting the pace of adoption and regulation of AVs across different markets, these factors will shape the investment opportunity for autonomous vehicles. We continue to analyse this trend as part of our research into both Responsible AI and the automotive sector, addressing themes such as safety, AI deployment, and human capital management for a just and equitable transition. Investors play a role in driving the future.
1 Ranging from 700,000 to 3 million vehicles by 2035 https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/here-at-last-the-evolution-of-the-robotaxi
2 In the EU, around 95% of fatal road accidents are linked to human factors https://road-safety.transport.ec.europa.eu/document/download/a7428369-8eaf-4032-806e-ea08b46028c0_en?filename=ERSO-TR-MainCauses.pdf
3 For China's taxi drivers, smartphones are as important as seat belts - Nikkei Asia
4 US Bureau of transportation statistics, Counting the Transportation Workforce: Nearly 1 Million Self-Employed, 2024
