House View Q2 2025: Vibe shift

Our view of global markets

市場波動讓人難以捉摸,資金加速輪動
  • 2025 年年初投資市場產生了情緒轉變。面對嚴峻的地緣政治現實問題,歐洲正以推動結構性成長的方式調整財政政策。這樣的轉變是經濟和政治史上的關鍵時刻,引發歐洲股市全面上漲。
  • 我們認為,到目前為止,資金從美國轉向歐洲市場,幾乎還未對美國市場長期以來的大幅買進持有的部位造成影響,而現在參與並不算太晚。
  • 在美國,關稅以及經濟和政府政策的不確定性正在拖累經濟成長。新政府的一些措施可能會削弱美國做為避險市場的地位。
  • 這種環境下的風險包括美國通膨上升、全球成長動能放緩,以及可能爆發全面且持久的貿易戰。但我們認為對於主動投資而言,這是一個主動出手的絕佳時期。
  • 在可能出現短期波動的環境中,我們對特定股票市場抱持謹慎樂觀的態度。跨地區的穩健投資組合是關鍵。考慮做多歐洲市場部位,以及關注中國和印度的投資機會。
  • 這種情緒的轉變對主權債券有一定的影響。我們最看好的是英國公債。整體而言,我們稍稍拉長對英國和歐元區債券的存續期間。我們認為投資等級債券的利差交易受到市場動能的支撐。

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季表現圖表

情勢逆轉
隨著川普重返白宮,許多投資人希望美國股市能夠再現川普在 2017 年總統第一任期初期的漲勢。事與願違的是,美國股票市場下跌,歐洲股市卻走揚。值得注意的是,美股七巨頭 (Mag 7) 的美國科技類股,選後的漲幅全部吐回去了。

資料來源:倫敦證交所資料庫、安聯環球投資全球經濟與策略研究團隊,數據截至2025年3月12日

時間緊迫?下載我們摘要 的第二季展望了解更多。

各資產類別看法

  • 整體而言,我們對股市抱持正向預期,同時在面對「短暫波動」風險時進行戰術性調整。我們認為歐洲股市還有進一步上漲的空間,但鑒於市場的波動性和不確定性,我們也會將其它全球市場視為跨地區穩健投資組合的一部分。
  • 重申「歐洲主權」,以及增加財政支出承諾,可能會促進多個產業的發展。這些可能包括網路資安、AI 人工智慧以及國防。
  • 目前歐洲投資人在營建領域的投資比例較少。但全球資料中心的快速成長對該產業具有結構性的正面影響;也可能受益於烏克蘭停火之後的重建。
  • 相較於其它新興市場,市值為 4 兆美元的印度擁有高度多元化的行業。價值的安全邊際(按:指股票內在價值與股票價格的差距,當差距越大,越能降低投資虧損的風險)非常居有吸引力。
  • 我們認為中國的價值頗具吸引力,且因其技術焦點 (例如具體化的 AI 人工智慧和人形機器人) 而備受關注。 鑑於今年中國貿易前景可能偏弱,政府準備促進消費以支撐內需經濟成長。
  • 我們預期歐洲的殖利率曲線會變得陡峭,反映出德國和其它國家的大規模國防相關支出計畫,而這些計畫都需要時間來實施。橫跨大西洋,對經濟放緩的擔憂也導致美國殖利率曲線陡峭化。在這種環境下,我們傾向於圍繞結構性部位進行戰術性交易。
  • 根據價值和市場對央行政策的預期,英國公債的前景看起來相當樂觀。英國不像歐元區或加拿大,未來可能的降息尚未完全反映在價格中。我們基於近期英國公債的優異表現,對該主題進行部分的獲利了結。
  • 日圓考慮做多。日本央行持續面臨將利率提高至較「正常」水準的壓力,以因應通膨。因此,預期日本的殖利率曲線會趨於平坦。
  • 切勿在信貸市場追逐貝塔係數。因為預期會發生利率波動,目前的環境需要採用選擇性的方法,涉及由下而上的分析以及單一信用分析。
  • 新興市場經歷市場波動中展現韌,表示針對新興市場債務採取選擇性投資方法有其價值。
  • 隨著挑戰日益增加而且關稅影響市場情緒,我們還是選擇性地維持對某些股票市場的樂觀看法。 在我們減少對美國的持股後,受到動能、價值具有吸引力、增加的財政支出和不斷改善的市場情緒所推動的歐洲股市成為我們的首選。
  • 歐洲的通膨率低於美國,因此讓我們看好歐洲公債而非美國公債。儘管規劃中的財政振興方案的規模仍有待確定,但我們預期在波動性加劇和主要殖利率曲線脫鉤的環境下,殖利率仍將持續走高。
  • 我們偏好的貨幣是日圓。 我們認為日本央行的政策立場支撐日圓的走勢,日本央行的升息週期已進入後期。日圓可能恢復避險市場的地位,尤其是日本當地債券愈來愈有吸引力的時候。
  • 在大宗商品方面,由於其強勁的發展動能,以及其對地緣政治風險的避險作用,黃金仍然是我們最看好的投資標的。我們認為,黃金仍然是多重資產投資組合中非常有用的多元投資選擇。

我們對總體經濟和市場的最新思考,以及我們投資總監對於各資產類別的投資看法。

我們的完整團隊觀點包括投資市場的全面分析和獨家數據。
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快速瀏覽安聯環球投資團隊觀點 2025 年第 2季
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團隊觀點

我們關注川普重掌白宮對美國經濟和市場產生巨大變化。隨著經濟在成長、通膨和利率方面的分歧加劇,投資人宜採取嶄全新看法和實施廣泛分散投資。

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分水嶺時刻對投資者意味著什麼。

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即使有政治風險存在,這並不是坐視不管的時候。

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