House View Q2 2025: Vibe shift

Our view of global markets

市場資金輪換,投資者倍感困惑
  • 2025年初市場氣氛發生轉變。面對嚴峻的地緣政治現實,歐洲各國正在調整財政政策,務求推動經濟實現結構性增長。該轉向是重大的經濟及政治時刻,引發歐洲股市全面回升。
  • 我們認為,到目前為止,資金轉為流向歐洲市場的趨勢,幾乎未對既有的美國重大超配持倉產生影響,目前參與其中亦為時未晚。
  • 美國方面,關稅及經濟和政府政策的不確定性正拖累經濟增長。美國新政府的部分行動可能削弱美國作為投資避風港的地位。
  • 該環境下的風險包括美國通脹上升、環球增長動力放緩,以及可能爆發全面持久的貿易戰。然而,我們認為在這個時期,進行主動型投資管理是極為重要。
  • 對於可能出現暫時性震盪「氣囊」的環境中,我們對個別股市持審慎樂觀態度。跨地區均衡配置的投資組合至關重要。考慮持有歐洲長倉,同時探索中國和印度的機遇。
  • 市場氣氛轉變對主權債券產生影響。我們對英國金邊債券的確信度最高。整體而言,我們對英國及歐元區的存續期略長。我們認為投資級別債券的息差受到利差及動力的支持。

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季度圖表

形勢逆轉
隨著特朗普重掌白宮,不少投資者憧憬特朗普於2017年首次當選總統初期的美股反彈情景能夠重現。相反,美國市場有所回落,而歐洲股市則急漲。值得注意的是,美國科技股「七巨頭」是如何集體回吐大選後的升幅。

資料來源:LSEG Datastream、安聯投資經濟及策略觀點,數據截至2025年3月12日

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資產類別確信度

  • 整體而言,我們看好股市前景,同時在面對「市場波動」風險時保持策略性。我們認為歐洲股市的回升將會持續,但受到市場波動性及不確定性所影響,我們也會考慮其他環球市場,作為跨地區均衡配置投資組合的一部分。
  • 重申「歐洲主權」及承諾增加支出,可望提振若干行業的表現。其中將可能包括網絡安全、AI以及國防。
  • 目前歐洲投資者對建築行業比重偏低。然而,環球數據中心出現的快速增長,從結構上利好該行業,其亦有望從烏克蘭戰後重建中受惠。
  • 印度股市市值達到4萬億美元,相較其他新興市場,其行業多元化程度較高。估值可能提供具吸引力的安全邊際。
  • 我們認為中國的估值具吸引力,並因其對科技的焦點(例如具身智能(Embodied Intelligence)及人形機械人)而受到關注鑑於中國今年的貿易前景可能轉弱,料中國政府將推動消費,以支持經濟增長。
  • 我們預計歐洲的收益率曲線將會走峭,反映德國及其他國家與國防相關的大規模支出計劃,這些計劃將需時執行。在大西洋彼岸,對經濟增長放緩的憂慮,亦表明美國收益率曲線將會走峭。在這種環境下,我們傾向於圍繞結構性持倉進行策略性交易。
  • 從估值及市場對英倫銀行政策的預期來看,英國政府債券的前景理想。有別於歐元區或加拿大,英國債市的走向並未完全反映未來減息的可能性。基於英國政府債券近期表現出色,我們對該主題進行部分獲利回吐。
  • 考慮持有日圓長倉。日本央行面臨持續壓力,需要將利率上調至更為「正常」的水平,藉以應對通脹。有見及此,日本收益率曲線預料將會趨平。
  • 切勿在信貸市場追逐貝他值。鑑於預計利率將表現波動,投資者有需要在當前環境精挑細選,涉及由下而上的選債方法並對個別債券進行信貸分析。
  • 面對市場波動性,新興市場展現出韌性,這表明以精挑細選的方法投資於新興市場債券存在價值。
  • 儘管不利因素增加及關稅打擊市場氣氛,但我們在精挑細選的基礎上看好若干股市。在減少我們的美國股票持倉後,歐洲股票成為我們的首選投資,其股價受到充沛的動力、吸引的估值、增加的財政支出及改善中的市場氣氛所提振
  • 歐洲的通脹水平較美國為低,我們看好歐洲政府債券多於美國國庫券。儘管計劃實施的財政方案的規模尚未敲定,但在波動性增加及主要國債收益率曲線走勢脫鈎的環境下,我們預計高債券收益率的形勢將會持續。
  • 在外匯中我們偏好日圓。我們認為,日圓的行情得到日本央行貨幣政策立場的支持,其處於加息週期的末段。日圓有望重獲避險資產的地位,尤其是基於日本本幣債券的吸引力日益增強。
  • 大宗商品方面,黃金依舊是我們確信度最高的持倉,得益於其動力強勁及其作為地緣政治風險的對沖工具。我們認為,黃金繼續在多元資產投資組合中發揮有效的分散風險作用。

我們對宏觀經濟和市場的最新思考,以及我們資產類別CIO的見解。

我們的完整版團隊觀點包括投資市場全面分析及專有數據。
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我們關注特朗普重掌白宮對美國經濟和市場產生巨大變化。隨著經濟在增長、通脹和利率方面的分歧加劇,投資者宜採取嶄新思維和實施更廣泛的多元化部署。

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分水嶺時刻對投資者意味著什麼。

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即使有政治風險存在,這並不是坐視不管的時候。

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