House View Q2 2025: Vibe shift

Our view of global markets

市场波动让人难以捉摸,资金加速轮动
  • 2025年初,市场情绪发生转变。 面对严峻的地缘政治形势,欧洲正在着手调整财政政策以推动经济结构性增长。这一转变,也是经济和政治的重要节点,引发欧洲市场的全面上涨。
  • 我们认为,截至目前,相对于美国市场长期以来的大量超配仓位而言,资金流入欧洲市场的规模仍然很小,现在入场仍为时不晚。
  • 美国方面,关税问题以及对经济和政府政策的不确定性正在拖累美国经济增长。 新政府的一些举措可能会削弱美国作为“避险天堂”的地位。
  • 在此环境下,主要风险包括 美国通胀反弹、全球增长势头放缓以及贸易战全面爆发且旷日持久的危险。 但我们认为,这为主动管理策略提供了颇具 吸引力的时机。
  • 鉴于市场环境可能出现如“空气漩涡”一般的短期波动,我们对部分股市持谨慎乐观态度。构建具有稳定支撑的跨区域投资组合至关重要。考虑做多欧洲市场,同时关注中国和印度市场投资机会。
  • 市场情绪的此番转变对主权债券也产生了影响。 我们对英国金边债券的确 信度最高。总体而言,我们略微看好英国和欧元区久期。我们认为,套利机会和上涨动能为投资级债券利差提供了支撑。

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本季度图表

风水轮转
随着特朗普再次入主白宫,许多投资者都期待着美国股市能重演2017年其首个任期初期的上涨走势。但事与愿违,美国市场出现下挫,欧洲股市则一路大涨长虹。特别是美国科技股“七巨头”(Mag 7)集体回吐了大选以来的涨幅。

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数据来源:伦敦证券交易所集团数据流,安联投资经济与策略研究团队。数据截至2025年3月12日

时间紧迫?下载我们第二季度团队观点的摘要

资产类别研判:

  • 总体而言,我们依然对股票持乐观态度,同时采取战术性配置以应对 “空气漩涡”式风险。 我们认为欧洲股票仍有上涨空间,但鉴于市场波动性和不确定性,我们也会关注全球其他市场,以构建具有稳定支撑的跨区域投资组合。
  • 重申 “欧洲主权”及增加政府支出的承诺有望提振多个板块表现。 其中可能涵盖网络安全、人工智能及国防等领域。
  • 欧洲投资者目前低配建筑板块。 但全球数据中心的快速增长将为该板块带来结构性利好;该板块还有望从乌克兰停火后的重建工作中受益。
  • 印度股市市值约为4万亿美元,与其他新兴市场相比行业多元化程度较高。 估值也提供了较为可观的安全边际。
  • 我们认为中国股市估值颇具吸引力,同时也因其科技领域(例如具身人工智能和人形机器人)聚焦度逐渐受到市场关注。 鉴于今年中国贸易前景可能偏弱,中国政府可能会通过拉动消费来促进经济增长。
  • 我们预期欧洲收益率曲线将趋陡, 这主要是由于德国及欧 洲其他各国推出大规模国防相关开支计划的影响,但相关计划付诸实施仍需时日。在大西洋另一岸,对美国经济放 缓的担忧同样可能导致美国收益率曲线陡峭化。在此环境下,我们倾向于对结构性持仓进行战术性操作。
  • 从估值和央行政策的市场预期来看,英国金边债券的前景较为乐观。与欧元区或加拿大不同,英国市场的定价尚未充分反映未来可能的降息幅度。鉴于近期英国金边债券表现出色,我们对该投资主题的部分头寸执行了获利了结操作。
  • 考虑做多日元。日本央行持续面临加息压力,亟需将利率上调至更“正常”的水平以应对通胀。因此,预计日本收益率曲线将趋于平坦。
  • 切勿在债券市场追逐贝塔。鉴于预期利率波动性较高,当前环境需要投资者采取自下而上的方法结合个券分析谨慎选择债券。
  • 新兴市场在市场波动中展现出韧性,这表明投资于精选新兴市场债券的方法具有价值。
  • 由于不利因素加剧及关税打压市场情绪,我们维持选择性看好部分股市的立场。在削减美国敞口后,欧洲股票成为我们的首选,这主要得益于欧洲市场的上涨动能、具有吸引力的估值、财政支出增加以及市场情绪回暖等因素的提振。
  • 鉴于欧洲通胀低于美国,相比美国国债,我们更青睐欧洲政府债券。尽管一揽子财政计划规模尚待最终确定,但鉴于波动性上升及主要收益率曲线呈分化态势,我们预计收 益率将维持在较高水平。
  • 我们的首选货币是日元。我们认为,日本央行的政策立场 (其加息周期已接近尾声)为日元提供了支撑。日元有望重获避险货币的地位,特别是随着日元本币债券的吸引力持续增强。
  • 大宗商品方面,鉴于黄金涨势强劲及其作为地缘政治风险对冲工具的作用,黄金仍是我们确信度最高的投资类别。 我们认为,黄金仍是多元资产投资组合中有益的分散投资工具。

我们对宏观经济和市场的最新思考,以及我们资产类别CIO的见解。

我们的完整版团队观点包括投资市场全面分析及独家数据。
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团队观点系列

我们关注唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫对美国经济和市场的深远影响。随着经济在增长、通胀和利率方面的分化加剧,建议采用创新的投资思维和更广泛的多元化配置。

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对投资者来说,转折时刻意味着什么。

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即使有政治风险存在,这并不是坐视不管的时候。

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